Robert Hahn wrote an article that appeared on Inman News recently that was ripe with 2010 predictions regarding the state of Real Estate in the country. It is a good read and I liked his take on many of the subjects.  Aside from mentioning the Jets not going to the Super Bowl, Hahn predicted that 2010 will actually see a worse housing market than 2009.

I get tired of reading rosey, pollyanna housing news from NAR and other sources and found Hahn’s prediction to be smart and potentially right on.  Of course all real estate is local and just the other day I posted a 2010 Columbus area market prediction of around a 12-15% increase over this year through April, but this is what Hahn had to say…

“A number of experts believe that the housing market will recover in 2010. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of NAR, recently said that the real estate market will rebound in the spring and summer of 2010. Strong sales numbers in the third and fourth quarters of 2009 have a lot of real estate people thinking that we have hit bottom, and that the market will rebound in 2010.

I don’t believe it. Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel recently presented at a meeting of Lucky Strikes Social Media Club, and suggested that the strong third-quarter numbers were the result of time-shifting of second-quarter demand, spurred on mostly by the first-time homebuyer tax credit program.

Add to that notion the fact that unemployment still remains high, with no sign of recovery on that front, at least from a private sector that is bracing for higher taxes, more regulation, a national health care plan, and the possibility of carbon tax. The extension of the homebuyer tax credit is surely a positive for the housing market, but unless the employment picture improves I can’t see the market rebounding in a real way.

And some knowledgeable folks (including the aforementioned Miller) believe that there are some 2 million-plus housing units in foreclosure that have simply not been released to the market yet for a variety of reasons such as moratoriums, overwhelmed staff at banks, and reluctance to write down the asset value. Maybe not all of that inventory will hit in 2010, but banks can’t keep deluding themselves and us.

So I’m predicting that 2010 will be actually worse than 2009 was. Call me a pessimist, and hope that I’m wrong.”